← RWTCollective - ALC Store Championship
Water AlliesTier 1
at RWTCollective - ALC Store Championship
decks
5
(11.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
26
15-10-1
overall winrate
59.6%
ELO-adjusted winrate
56.1%
avg ELO +2.3 per match
expected value
50.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1321
· median 1314
· range 1207–1482
(5 pilots with an ELO rating)
1052
Q1 1154
Q3 1384
1736
20% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 11.4% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 44.9% | -3.8 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 9.1% | 4 | 1-2-1 | 37.5% | 43.8% | 44.4% | -3.6 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 9.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.3% | -1.6 |
| Fire Arcane | 6.8% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 62.3% | +11.8 |
| Rogue | 6.8% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 37.3% | -8.1 |
| Wind Allies | 6.8% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 42.1% | -5.9 |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 4.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.1% | +11.4 |
| Water Vanitas | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Arisanna | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.4% | +18.2 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Silvie | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.6% | +12.2 |
| Fire Triskit | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.5% | +15.2 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.5% | +13.6 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.5% | +15.1 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tonoris | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos Tonoris | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.2% | +16.4 |
| Wind Silvie | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.8% | +12.4 |
